Joy Bolli: Some analysts look at Brazil's growth figures with a sense of suspicion. Is it realistic to expect Brazil to grow the way it grew, in 2010?
Antonio Quintella: It is realistic to expect that Brazil will maintain its growth path for a number of years going forward. I don't think it is realistic that we will see Brazil grow at, say nine or 10 percent per year, every year for many years. But, I would expect an accommodation of the growth rate to around five or six percent ? which would be still extremely attractive.
Brazil is the world's largest exporter of coffee, sugar, chicken, beef and orange juice. The country also has vast natural resources. Which commodities do you expect to perform best during 2010?
Clearly iron ore was performing extremely well. And Brazil was obviously the largest exporter of iron ore. It is also the largest exporter of soy beans. But I would say, with a reasonably stable macroeconomic environment around the world, most commodities should do reasonably well ? whether they are food commodities or metals. The good point about Brazil is that it is a low-cost producer of all of these commodities. So regardless of how the prices of these commodities are doing on a worldwide basis, Brazil should be doing well because it is probably the lowest-cost producer for many of those important commodities in the world.
Brazil is also the second-largest producer of ethanol fuel. Do you see other fields of alternative energy where Brazil could become leading?
Yes. The world needs to look and invest in alternative sources of energy. There are obviously issues with fossil fuels, including the availability of fossil fuels in years to come. Brazil has had a program for ethanol production ? it is basically sugar-cane based ? for many years and it has been very successful. Obviously, there are opportunities elsewhere in alternative energy. I would cite solar and wind power as examples, where Brazil should be competitive, given its size and geographic location. There are a number of pilot programs targeting alternative energy sources down there. But obviously, ethanol continues to be the most important one.
What are the most important future pillars or industries in Brazil?
Brazil has a large domestic market. So, if you look at the composition of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Brazil, food and services are a very important component. If you look at the industries, Brazil has a very diversified industrial base. Its steel industry is very competitive. Its mining industry is very competitive. All the natural resources, including forestry businesses, are very competitive as well. But it is particularly diversified and therefore, Brazil is in a good position to compete on a worldwide basis with most other countries.
From a market point of view, Brazil has weathered the storm of the global financial crisis well. What is your perspective for the future of the Brazilian market?
You're right. Brazil weathered the storm well because it has addressed its key weaknesses in the last 10 years or so. Brazil has therefore been on a growth path, which has been fairly sustainable for a number of years. We should expect that to continue. Brazil is in a reasonably solid and comfortable position to benefit from a more stable macroeconomic environment around the world. And Brazil does not depend, strictly speaking, on export markets. Brazil is a very large domestic market. And I think the growth rate is sustainable there.
Which other countries do you think will surprise us in the Latin American region, with their growth?
Most countries in Latin America are going to post reasonably attractive growth rates this year and next year. But if I had to pick two or three that are probably going to perform the best ? and obviously are relatively important in the Latin American context ? I would mention Mexico, Peru, and Colombia. Those are the countries that are probably going to surprise us on the upside this year and next.harmon computer speakers harmon karden harmon kardon harmon kardon 135 harmon kardon 240
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